Will Jon Tester Keep His Senate Seat in 2024?
Senator Jon Tester has been incredibly lucky with how his past three elections have been scheduled. All of his past elections were scheduled during good years for Democrats. His initial election in 2006 was the big pushback year against Bush that saw Nancy Pelosi gain speakership. 2012 was perhaps his hardest year, however, politics was different back then and personal politics mattered more, especially when Tester’s opponent’s complicated stance on his personal wealth was jarring to voters. 2018 barely needs an explanation. Good year for Democrats and bad for Republicans. By 2024, partisan identity is going to matter more than ever, and it may not be enough to save the personal politics style of Jon Tester. Analysts already estimate that $100 million will be spent between Democrats and Republicans for this election. Especially with the other Senator from Montana, Republican Steve Daines, becoming Chair of the NRSC, a great deal of Republican resources is going to be behind whoever faces against Tester in the general election. The Republican Primary may be a challenge for Republicans in this race. It is anticipated that both Montana’s Congressmen, Rep. Ryan Zinke, and Rep. Matt Rosendale, are going to face each other in the primary. Jon Tester will probably win reelection if Matt Rosendale gets nominated, and Republicans know this. Tester beat Rosendale in 2018, and Rosendale’s outlandish political style, personal wealth, and Maryland roots are turnoffs for humble Montana voters. It’s safe to assume Republicans already know this. Considering the antics Rosendale pulled during the McCarthy speakership vote, the party would be much more inclined to back Ryan Zinke, who was Secretary of the Interior under Trump, and was actually born in Montana; which is something that Montana voters treasure immensely. The value of Montana heritage in elections when choosing a candidate makes Montana such a unique state. It’s far from other more populous states which garners a special culture and appreciation for the state and brings a tight-knit and community-oriented feel, which has allowed sixth-generation, farm-owning Montanan Jon Tester to resonate so well with Montana voters. “Maryland Matt” was used as a slogan in 2018 to paint him as a carpetbagger who moved to Montana because he could not get elected state-wide in such a liberal bastion like Maryland. However, Matt Rosendale did win the then-at-large Congressional Seat in Montana just two years after his Senate loss, which should serve as a warning light for Democrats. Rep. Zinke is no angel himself either. He had to resign from his post as Secretary of the Interior due to a litany of charges pertaining to financial malfeasance. The whole extent of investigations into Zinke was stalled by the then-Deputy Attorney General, however, Zinke was still found to be in violation of ethics rules by the Inspector General of the Interior. Zinke could be painted as the definition of pay-to-play access in Washington. His extensive history with giving special treatment to corporations such as MGM and Halliburton, as well as lobbyists, could tie him close to the kind of swampy politics humble Montana voters vehemently despise. Despite the fact Jon Tester has the third lowest voting alignment with President Biden, it still stands at 91%. Although this figure is significant for political analysts, it sounds like a massive red flag for conservative voters in Montana. Tester will run a more grounded issues-oriented campaign than a partisan one. He will run on his record as the Chair of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, as well as tout the parts of the infrastructure package that greatly benefit Montana. The latter portion of his strategy is incredibly risky. In a cable news-dominated political culture, it is bold to assume voters will recognize nuance in the infrastructure package. Despite the fact that there are parts of the package that help Montana, the rest of it would just seem excessive to swingvoters. Especially on the heels of rampant inflation, which has devastated Montana’s real estate market, selling the infrastructure package as a victory would not be convincing to Montana voters who just think that the Biden Administration has authorized way too much spending, and Tester would be tied as an enabler to it, unlike an opponent to it like his other vulnerable counterpart Senator Joe Manchin.
Key Takeaways
Both potential Republican candidates are tainted, Zinke with consistent violations of ethics rules and Rosendale with his outlandish political flair and lack of Montana roots
Jon Tester may be tying himself too close to the infrastructure package, which can be spun as him enabling the rampant inflation that has plagued Montana’s economy since 2020
There are numerous blue-trending cities in Montana including Missoula, Kalispell, Butte, Great Falls, Bozeman, and Helena; all of which combined constitute 25.7% of the state’s population, which may not be enough to take Tester over the edge unless turnout is high in those areas.
