Can Democrats Hold West Virginia in 2024?

Just as in the case with Jon Tester, Senator Joe Manchin could either have a slightly easier time getting reelected or a brutal time depending on who his opponent is. So far, three serious potential candidates have been named. The three are Rep. Alex Mooney, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and Governor Jim Justice. Like Montana, West Virginia is another state that values intrastate heritage. Of the three, only Governor Justice can honestly claim West Virginia heritage. Patrick Morrisey was a high-priced city-slicking lawyer and lobbyist between New York City and Washington D.C. before moving to West Virginia about ten years ago. Alex Mooney is the most problematic candidate of the lot. He has been embroiled in a House Ethics scandal over the usage of his staff and campaign resources for personal errands and affairs. He was also a State Senator in Maryland, representing Frederick, and the Chair of the Republican Party of Maryland before moving forty minutes to the west to Charles Town, a relatively affluent exurb within the D.C. metro area. It’s apparent he only made the move because he realized moving up to Congress as a Republican in Maryland was a fool’s errand. However, he must be kicking himself now after the recent redistricting effort in Maryland drew what would have been Alex Mooney’s district from semi-safe Democratic, to nearly dead even with the Cook PVI index rating the redone Maryland’s 6th at D +2. Both Mooney and Morrissey could easily be named “carpetbaggers”, moving into West Virginia only because the other two states bordering D.C. favor Democrats, Maryland more so than Virginia. Mooney would especially have a hard time with the other half of the state that has yet to put him up to the test on the ballot. Despite the fact his prior map had him representing Charleston, he still has to make his plea to voters in Southern West Virginia, which is significantly more impoverished and deprived than his constituencies in Morgantown, Jefferson County, and previously Charleston. Imagine explaining to the entirety of West Virginia why the guy who was a proud and nearly-lifelong Maryland resident suddenly had a change of heart and thought West Virginia was more aligned with his values. He barely lives in the cultural heart of the state, as Jefferson County is an exurban spillover of the D.C. suburban development boom, as is evident by its status as the richest county in West Virginia. Governor Justice would have the easiest time coasting through the primary. Not only is he Governor, which has much more name recognition than a member of Congress, but he is the only serious candidate that can tout his West Virginia heritage. He literally owned coal mines, a political and economic lifeline in West Virginia. However, his connection to coal can be considered a double-edged sword in the race. On the one hand, he can say he created jobs with his family-owned coal company. A sweet sentiment for the coal-connected families in West Virginia. But, his company has been involved in litanies of scandal with its terrible environmental track record and dodgy finances. His wealth doesn’t appear to be subject to scrutiny either as voters don’t seem to mind it as evidenced by his election to the Governorship twice. Senator Manchin also owned a coal company, although it was much smaller in scale than Justice’s mines. However, personal finances or dealings will not be the most pressing issue in this campaign. This election is a referendum on the Biden agenda in West Virginia, a phenomenon that usurps personal politics. It doesn’t matter how long Manchin’s family has been involved in West Virginia or how many coal jobs he created. This is about sending a message to Washington that they are sick of the consistent undermining of West Virginia values by the Biden Administration. Inflation, aggressive renewable energy initiatives, and overall dissatisfaction with the political culture Democrats are perceived to be ushering in are all going to be put up to the test on the ballot. West Virginia will vote for the Republican candidate as President, even if it is Mickey Mouse, and the coattail effect will be in full swing unless Manchin can make a large, genuine, and expensive plea to voters that he has been critical in trying to scale back Biden’s massive and consequential initiatives. 

Key Takeaways

  • Governor Justice poses the most serious threat to Senator Manchin due to his status as Governor and immense personal resources

  • The election will be a referendum on the Biden Agenda, which could help or harm Manchin depending on his campaign strategy

  • The state will vote for the Republican presidential candidate and the coattail effect may send the Republican Senate candidate over the line into victory

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